September 26th, 2023 Mortgage Industry Update
The Bank of Canada announced on September 6th that its overnight lending rate will remain at 5.00%. The Canadian economy has now entered a period of weaker growth. CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. Prime remains at 7.20%.
Additionally this week:
– The Harris Poll: More than 20% of homeowners plan to sell their primary residences within the next three years. Only 22% of those planning to sell their primary residences cite saving money as a primary motivator. Most common motivation to sell is a desire to downsize, with 34%.
– CMHC has markedly lowered its estimate for how many new homes will be built across the country by 2030 “Last year, we projected that, by 2030, there would be 18.6m housing units in Canada. Now, we project 18.2m units (compared to our estimate of 16.5m existing units in 2022).”
– CREA: Sales across Canada’s housing market fell by 4.1% between July and August as series of Bank of Canada rate hikes continued to take their toll. Sales came in at 38,345 last month, slowdown from July, with average price of home falling by 2.3% on a monthly basis to $674,184.
– Equifax: Canadian consumer debt reached a new peak of $2.4T during Q2. Mortgage debt showed a mere 1% increase from Q1 to Q2 2023. However credit card balances hit an all-time high of $107.4B. Average non-mortgage debt per credit-active consumer edged up to $21,131.
– Wahi: GTA real estate market has shifted from rampant overbidding earlier this year to surge in underbidding in August. 70% of 245 GTA neighbourhoods have now entered underbidding territory. Nearly 70% of neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory at the beginning of the summer.
– CMHC poll: 55% said they expect their home to grow in value over the next year compared to 84% the previous year. Asked if they were “confident I will be able to make my future mortgage payments,” 78% agreed compared to 90% last year.
Stay tuned for the next update!
For any questions and concerns please do not hesitate to call Harpreet Singh The Mortgage King at (416) 795-1919.