Oct 29th, 2026 Mortgage Industry Update
The Bank of Canada announced on October 28th that its overnight rate will rise to 2.50% from 2.25%. Marks the first increase in more than three years. Mainly due to high energy prices. Growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter of 2026, before picking up again in 2027. The prime rate increases to 4.70% from 4.45%.
Additionally this week:
– National Bank of Canada: Fixed-rate mortgages with terms of five years or longer fell to 8.8% of newly originated loans in July, the lowest level since records began in 2013, with the remaining 91.2% carrying shorter fixed terms or variable rates.
– Statistics Canada: Labour market suffered its deepest monthly setback of 2026 in September, with the economy shedding 68,300 jobs. Unemployment rate climbed to 6.5%, back to where it stood at the start of the year. The country has now lost a net 41,200 positions in 2026.
– REMAX brokers + agents reported yearly sales declines in 81% of local markets analyzed b/w Jan 1-Jul 31. 32% of markets expected to sit in buyers’ territory, more than double 2025’s 15.2%, while 25% should still favour sellers. National sales to finish 2026 roughly 2% below 2025.
– RE/MAX: With Canada’s ban on non-residential foreign homebuyers expiring in January, says it’s time for government to shelve program and open housing market back up to buyers from outside country. Is a hindrance to home construction and a drag on already flailing housing market.
– REMAX Canada’s 2026 Fall Housing Market Outlook: 65% of respondents willing to make at least one compromise on location, property type, or financial structure to access a more suitable home. 63% said they would relocate for a home that better meets their needs.
– C.D. Howe Institute: Canada’s five-year GoC bond yield has climbed to 3.7%. More than three times the sub-1% levels that prevailed when millions of Canadians took out five-year fixed mortgages in 2020 and 2021. “Higher payments ahead for renewing households across the country”.
– OSFI: Geopolitical uncertainty, a softer economy, and rapid technological change have intensified risk across Canada’s financial system since April. Federally regulated financial institutions remain resilient and profitable, but face a more complex operating environment.
– TRREB: GTA home sales down in September to 5,040, 9% drop from 5,540 in 2025. Third straight month of annual declines and the steepest since January. New listings fell 14.4% to 16,500 and active listings dropped 9.3% to 26,131. Average selling price fell 5.1% to $1,006,409.
Stay tuned for the next update!
For any questions and concerns please do not hesitate to call Harpreet Singh The Mortgage King at (416) 795-1919.
