July 3rd, 2026 Mortgage Industry Update
The Bank of Canada announced on June 10th that its overnight rate will remain at 2.25%. Economic activity in Canada has been weak and uncertainty about US trade policy persists. The conflict in the Middle East is ongoing and oil prices remain elevated. The prime rate remains 4.45%.
Additionally this week:
– RBC’s latest Home Ownership Poll: 64% of Canadians agree “you can never really know when the right time is to buy a home,” while just 27% say now is the right time to purchase. Among those planning to buy within the next two years, however, that share rises to 45%.
– Mortgage Professionals Canada: One-third of mortgage holders expect to renew within the next 12 months. Among those borrowers, 67% are anxious about renewing at a higher interest rate. Across mortgage holders overall, 6% say they are already struggling with payments.
– BILD: Total new home sales reached 1,023 in May, up from record May 2025 low of 310, but still 57% below 10 yr avg. Just 193 new condos sold, against avg of 1,715. New condos in GTA remained at $1,029,489. New single-family homes fetched $1,427,543, down 5.2% yearly.
– Statistics Canada: Annual inflation rate climbed to 3.2% in May, the highest reading since December 2023, as soaring gasoline prices driven by the ongoing Iran conflict pushed CPI past analyst expectations. Exceeded the 3.0% consensus forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
– BoC’s Financial Stability Report estimates that 9% of borrowers in GTA would be unable to refinance at renewal in 2027 at current home prices. Nationally figure sits at 4%. If home prices were to fall a further 10%, projects GTA share would rise to 12% and national share to 7%.
– Angus Reid poll: 88% of respondents said homes are overpriced, 69% said the market is unfair to first-time buyers, and just 14% said it is functioning as it should. Over half of non-homeowners (55%) said they have no intention of buying in the next 12 months.
– Statistics Canada placed Canada’s population at 41,417,056 on April 1, down 55,025 people from January 1. The 0.1% quarterly decline marks the third straight contraction, a sequence without precedent in modern Canadian history.
Stay tuned for the next update!
For any questions and concerns please do not hesitate to call Harpreet Singh The Mortgage King at (416) 795-1919.
